Thursday, April 28, 2011

USD/JPY Still Softer

We saw the USD hit hard this afternoon during and following Ben Bernanke’s testimony. In some instances, like the EUR/USD, we are starting to see some profit taking and mild retracements of earlier upward moves. However, the in the case of the USD/JPY we are seeing no recovery yet as the USD continues to sell against the JPY. After breaking through old support levels at 81.61, we see no significant levels below which could indicate possible support until 81.254; the 100% retracement line on the move from Tuesday’s low to yesterday’s high.

READ MORE - USD/JPY Still Softer

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Commerzbank: German exporters expect euro to fall

According to Commerzbank’s monthly survey of German exporters, the majority of respondents still think that the single currency will soon drop.

The sentiment of German companies about euro has worsened this month in comparison with March: 66% of participants now expect EUR/USD to fall during a year, while last month this figure accounted for 46%.

As a result, the bank says that if the current uptrend for the pair doesn’t reverse in the coming months, some firms may record significant losses.

Respondents also expect the single currency to fall versus Swiss franc, pound, Polish zloty and Russian ruble.



Chart. Daily EUR/USD
READ MORE - Commerzbank: German exporters expect euro to fall

UK economy went out of the dip

According to the data released today, UK GDP added 0.5% in the first 3 months of 2010 after losing the same amount in fourth quarter of 2010. Analysts at Capital Economics claim that British economy has only reversed the dip without going forwards.

As a result, the opposition’s criticism of the government's austerity measures is likely to strengthen, while the possibility of the BoE rate hike may decline though inflation twice exceeds the central bank's 2% target.

Never the less, pound managed to gain on the news as investors were preparing for worse outcome, says Danske Bank. The market was also pleased with the encouraging readings of the key indicators that showed the 0.9% quarter advance in services and 1.1% manufacturing growth. The weakest link was the construction that contracted by 4.7%.

Resistance levels for the pair GBP/USD are found at 1.6600 (April 21 maximum), 1.6715 (December 2009 maximum) and 1.6750 (November 25/2009 maximum). Support levels are situated at 1.6550 (April 25 maximums), 1.6515/20 (previous day maximum) and 1.6430 (April 26 minimum).



Chart. Daily GBP/USD
READ MORE - UK economy went out of the dip

Analysts increase forecasts for Aussie

Australian dollar reached today the record maximum at 1.0852 as the CPI data showed that inflation rate increased by 1.6% in the final 3 months of 2010 from the previous quarter, making the biggest advance since 2006. As a result, the expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate hike have strengthened.
In addition, Aussie benefited from the speculation that US FOMC will keep the interest rates at the minimal 0%-0.25% levels.
Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch think that Aussie may add more in the short term. In their view, the market doesn’t have much rate rises priced in at least for the next few months.
Specialists at Ueda Harlow think that the pair AUD/USD may strengthen to $1.10. Economists at Commonwealth Bank of Australia raised their forecast for the Australian dollar. The analysts now expect Aussie to climb to $1.12 by the end of September, before declining to $1.04 at year-end. Earlier the bank projected that the pair will decline to 0.9400 by the end of September.
According to the Credit Suisse Group AG index based on swaps, the RBA will lift up the borrowing by 26 basis points in the next 12 months.


Chart. H4 AUD/USD
READ MORE - Analysts increase forecasts for Aussie

Barclays Capital: Canadian dollar forecast

Canadian dollar added 11.8% versus the greenback since the end of June reaching $0.9453 on April 21, the maximal level since November 2007.
Analysts at Barclays Capital think that loonie may climb even higher. In their view, Canada’s currency will show the best results among the commodity currencies such as Australian and New Zealand’s dollars as those nations more depend on China the growth of which may slow. In addition, Canadian economic growth is gaining pace and the specialists expect the bank of Canada to conduct 2 rate hikes this year.
Barclays warns, however, that later sluggish productivity growth and troubling current account deficit will come into focus. There’s also the evidence that loonie's strength is affecting exports of some goods to the United States. As a result, in the longer term USD/CAD may reverse its downtrend.
It’s also necessary to note that, according to The Economist's Big Mac Index based on the purchasing power parity Canadian dollar may be overvalued by at least 12%.



Chart. Daily USD/CAD
READ MORE - Barclays Capital: Canadian dollar forecast

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Bullish AUD/NZD met with resistance at 1.3425

Upon the release of Australian CPI data this Wednesday, the AUD/NZD was taken to session lows at around the 1.3320 level (50% retracement of the rally between 1.3388/1.3446) before spiking higher, recording a 4 day high in the 1.3425 zone. The pair is now consolidating below this level and is currently trading in the 1.3410/20 area, 30 pips above the daily open.

The Australian currency can now be seen strengthening throughout the market. The AUD/CAD broke above the 1.0270 level and is quoted now at 1.0290, but not before climbing to an all-time high of 1.0322. AUD/JPY presents a bullish tone and is edging higher from its daily open at 87.86, quoted now just below the 88.30 area. And the AUD/USD is slowly grinding higher, now trading at 1.0830, more than 40 pips above its opening price.

Support levels (AUD/NZD): 1.3395, 1.3375, 1.3365 Resistance levels (AUD/NZD): 1.3425, 1.3445, 1.3463
READ MORE - Bullish AUD/NZD met with resistance at 1.3425

Juergen Stark: it’s vital to avoid debt restructuring in euro zone

European Central Bank Chief Economist Juergen Stark claimed in the interview to German TV station ZDF that debt restructuring euro area member state may lead to more severe consequences than those of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy that market 2008 crisis. In his view, such move would result in new banking crisis failing to solve the budget and structural problems in individual nations.

According to Stark, the county that restructures its debt risks being thrown out of capital markets and foreign financing for an unforeseeable time.

The economist is sure that the only way out for the indebted European economies is to conduct fiscal reforms and fully repay their debts.
READ MORE - Juergen Stark: it’s vital to avoid debt restructuring in euro zone

Greece’s deficit rose above the forecast

According to the EU data released today, the actual Greece’s 2010 budget deficit exceeded the forecast level. Greek shortfall rose to 10.5% of GDP, while the European Commission was looking forward only to 9.6% figure. The nation’s debt surged to 142.8% of GDP that’s above 140.2% estimate.

Despite the fact that a year ago the EU and the IMF provided Greece with 110 billion euro ($160 billion) bailout, the country keeps struggling to raise its revenue as its economy’s contracting.

Greek bond yields remain at the maximal levels – 2-year yields reached at 21.87%, while 10-year hit 15.18%.

Most economists think that the country will eventually have to restructure its debt either by extending the maturity or even by lowering the total amount of obligations.

Analysts at BNP Paribas think that Greece will need either a new loan from the EU/IMF or primary market bond purchases by the EFSF. The specialists are sure that the country won’t be able to fund itself in the markets in first quarter of 2012.
READ MORE - Greece’s deficit rose above the forecast

Commerzbank: ECB rates forecast

Strategists at Commerzbank think that the ECB will lift up the rates 2 times more – in September and in December. In addition, by the middle of the year the European policymakers may also change the allotment modes that may also be regarded as a tightening move.

The specialists think that the peripheral nations won’t be affected much by the rate increase, at least in the long term. According to the bank, looking at Portuguese or Spanish sovereign 5- or 10-year bond yields it’s possible to see that the real ECB interest rate expectations component of these yields is rather small as they are determined primarily by the sovereign credit risk.

However, the economists expect that in the longer term divergence trend in the euro area will intensify.




Chart. Daily EUR/USD
READ MORE - Commerzbank: ECB rates forecast

Monday, April 25, 2011

Hans Tietmeyer about the euro area and the ECB policy

Former Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer says that European Commission should have determined the criteria of joining the euro area more strictly. In his view, the currency union now faces the consequences of its development during the last 10 years.

Tietmeyer claims that Greece has a chance to get out of the crisis without restructuring. In his view, that depends on how competent the actions of the country’s policymakers will be. The indebted countries have to address their problems and take all necessary measures to restore their competitiveness in the euro area and worldwide, Tietmeyer says.

The economist thinks that the ECB was right to raise the interest rates.
READ MORE - Hans Tietmeyer about the euro area and the ECB policy

Financial Times: too early to restructure Greece's debt

Analysts at Financial Times doubt that the euro zone will be able to get out of the crisis without suffering much, as they have thought before. The economists changed their opinion as the tensions within the monetary union have significantly strengthened during the past week.

Let’s name the 2 main events here. Firstly, the elections in Finland showed that the 2 parties, which propose a partial Portuguese debt default as a condition for the bailout, have gained much weight among the nation’s population. This propelled the market’s concerns making the bond spreads widen to the record highs. Secondly, German Chancellor Angela Merkel may lose her majority over the domestic legislation of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the permanent mechanism to provide help for problem European states. The vote on the matter has already been put off until autumn. To make the domestic audience change attitude towards ESM, German officials talked about the inevitable Greek restructuring. This lead to the boom of rumors and ended with an investigation counter Citigroup conducted by Greek authorities.

The FT economists, however, warn that Greece’s premature default may have very dangerous consequences for the euro area. According to the newspaper, voluntary restructuring won’t save the country’s debt problems. Greece faces no short-term liquidity squeeze as it’s supported by the EU and the IMF, so there’s no urgent need for the restructuring. Moreover, the specialists believe that Greek banking sector won’t survive large and involuntary haircut. The ECB would face a haircut on its direct investments of Greek government bonds, and, more importantly, much of the collateral posted by Greek banks would vanish. Greek default will cost German taxpayers alone at least €40bn ($58bn), including recapitalization of the ECB estimates FT – that’s much more expensive than the bailout.

If Greece defaults, the EU and Portugal probably won’t be able to agree on a rescue package in time, the EU’s dispute with Ireland over corporate taxes may escalate, German, Finnish or Dutch parliaments may fail with the ratification of the ESM, and Greek parliament may refuse the new austerity measures and many other disasters may happen. FT analysts also think that there is the downgrade threat for French sovereign bonds. If it happens, the logic of the European financial EFSF will be destroyed as it is built on guarantees of the AAA countries.
READ MORE - Financial Times: too early to restructure Greece's debt

Citigroup, UBS about the potential intervention in Japan

The pair USD/JPY is trading at the lower border of the large “triangle”. Last week US dollar eased down to 81.60.

The greenback is still very weak and investors once again began speculating about the potential Japan’s currency intervention. Analysts at Citigroup and UBS think that the level watched by the country’s authorities is situated at 80 yen. On March 18 G7 nations intervened selling yen at 78.83 yen that helped to push dollar higher to 82 yen.

According to the specialists, some other countries such as Canada and Australia are also worried about the appreciation of their national currencies expressing dissatisfaction with US monetary policy. Some economists think that the maximal acceptable EUR/USD rate for the euro area is situated at $1.50.




Chart. Daily USD / JPY
READ MORE - Citigroup, UBS about the potential intervention in Japan

Foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange market (forex, FX, or currency market) is a global, worldwide decentralized over-the-counter financial market for trading currencies. Financial centers around the world function as anchors of trading between a wide range of different types of buyers and sellers around the clock, with the exception of weekends. The foreign exchange market determines the relative values of different currencies.[1]
The primary purpose of the foreign exchange is to assist international trade and investment, by allowing businesses to convert one currency to another currency. For example, it permits a US business to import British goods and pay Pound Sterling, even though the business's income is in US dollars. It also supports speculation, and facilitates the carry trade, in which investors borrow low-yielding currencies and lend (invest in) high-yielding currencies, and which (it has been claimed) may lead to loss of competitiveness in some countries.[2]

In a typical foreign exchange transaction, a party purchases a quantity of one currency by paying a quantity of another currency. The modern foreign exchange market began forming during the 1970s when countries gradually switched to floating exchange rates from the previous exchange rate regime, which remained fixed as per the Bretton Woods system.
The foreign exchange market is unique because of
  • its huge trading volume, leading to high liquidity;
  • its geographical dispersion;
  • its continuous operation: 24 hours a day except weekends, i.e. trading from 20:15 GMT on Sunday until 22:00 GMT Friday;
  • the variety of factors that affect exchange rates;
  • the low margins of relative profit compared with other markets of fixed income; and
  • the use of leverage to enhance profit margins with respect to account size.
As such, it has been referred to as the market closest to the ideal of perfect competition, notwithstanding currency intervention by central banks. According to the Bank for International Settlements,[3] as of April 2010, average daily turnover in global foreign exchange markets is estimated at $3.98 trillion, a growth of approximately 20% over the $3.21 trillion daily volume as of April 2007. Some firms specializing on foreign exchange market had put the average daily turnover in excess of US$4 trillion.[4]
The $3.98 trillion break-down is as follows:

Contents

[show]

Market Size and liquidity


Main foreign exchange market turnover, 1988–2007, measured in billions of USD.
The foreign exchange market is the most liquid financial market in the world. Traders include large banks, central banks, institutional investors, currency speculators, corporations, governments, other financial institutions, and retail investors. The average daily turnover in the global foreign exchange and related markets is continuously growing. According to the 2010 Triennial Central Bank Survey, coordinated by the Bank for International Settlements, average daily turnover was US$3.98 trillion in April 2010 (vs $1.7 trillion in 1998).[3] Of this $3.98 trillion, $1.5 trillion was spot foreign exchange transactions and $2.5 trillion was traded in outright forwards, FX swaps and other currency derivatives.
Trading in the UK accounted for 36.7% of the total, making UK by far the most important global center for foreign exchange trading. In second and third places, respectively, trading in the USA accounted for 17.9%, and Japan accounted for 6.2%.[5]
Turnover of exchange-traded foreign exchange futures and options have grown rapidly in recent years, reaching $166 billion in April 2010 (double the turnover recorded in April 2007). Exchange-traded currency derivatives represent 4% of OTC foreign exchange turnover. FX futures contracts were introduced in 1972 at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and are actively traded relative to most other futures contracts.
Most developed countries permit the trading of FX derivative products (like currency futures and options on currency futures) on their exchanges. All these developed countries already have fully convertible capital accounts. A number of emerging countries do not permit FX derivative products on their exchanges in view of controls on the capital accounts. The use of foreign exchange derivatives is growing in many emerging economies.[6] Countries such as Korea, South Africa, and India have established currency futures exchanges, despite having some controls on the capital account.

Top 10 currency traders [7] % of overall volume, May 2010
Rank Name Market share
1 Germany Deutsche Bank 18.06%
2 Switzerland UBS AG 11.30%
3 United Kingdom Barclays Capital 11.08%
4 United States Citi 7.69%
5 United Kingdom Royal Bank of Scotland 6.50%
6 United States JPMorgan 6.35%
7 United Kingdom HSBC 4.55%
8 Switzerland Credit Suisse 4.44%
9 United States Goldman Sachs 4.28%
10 United States Morgan Stanley 2.91%
Foreign exchange trading increased by 20% between April 2007 and April 2010 and has more than doubled since 2004.[8] The increase in turnover is due to a number of factors: the growing importance of foreign exchange as an asset class, the increased trading activity of high-frequency traders, and the emergence of retail investors as an important market segment. The growth of electronic execution methods and the diverse selection of execution venues have lowered transaction costs, increased market liquidity, and attracted greater participation from many customer types. In particular, electronic trading via online portals has made it easier for retail traders to trade in the foreign exchange market. By 2010, retail trading is estimated to account for up to 10% of spot FX turnover, or $150 billion per day (see retail trading platforms).
Because foreign exchange is an OTC market where brokers/dealers negotiate directly with one another, there is no central exchange or clearing house. The biggest geographic trading centre is the UK, primarily London, which according to TheCityUK estimates has increased its share of global turnover in traditional transactions from 34.6% in April 2007 to 36.7% in April 2010. Due to London's dominance in the market, a particular currency's quoted price is usually the London market price. For instance, when the IMF calculates the value of its SDRs every day, they use the London market prices at noon that day.

Market participants

 

Unlike a stock market, the foreign exchange market is divided into levels of access. At the top is the inter-bank market, which is made up of the largest commercial banks and securities dealers. Within the inter-bank market, spreads, which are the difference between the bid and ask prices, are razor sharp and not known to players outside the inner circle. The difference between the bid and ask prices widens (for example from 0-1 pip to 1-2 pips for a currencies such as the EUR) as you go down the levels of access. This is due to volume. If a trader can guarantee large numbers of transactions for large amounts, they can demand a smaller difference between the bid and ask price, which is referred to as a better spread. The levels of access that make up the foreign exchange market are determined by the size of the "line" (the amount of money with which they are trading). The top-tier interbank market accounts for 53% of all transactions. After that there are usually smaller banks, followed by large multi-national corporations (which need to hedge risk and pay employees in different countries), large hedge funds, and even some of the retail FX market makers. According to Galati and Melvin, “Pension funds, insurance companies, mutual funds, and other institutional investors have played an increasingly important role in financial markets in general, and in FX markets in particular, since the early 2000s.” (2004) In addition, he notes, “Hedge funds have grown markedly over the 2001–2004 period in terms of both number and overall size”.[9] Central banks also participate in the foreign exchange market to align currencies to their economic needs.

Banks

 

The interbank market caters for both the majority of commercial turnover and large amounts of speculative trading every day. A large bank may trade billions of dollars daily. Some of this trading is undertaken on behalf of customers, but much is conducted by proprietary desks, trading for the bank's own account. Until recently, foreign exchange brokers did large amounts of business, facilitating interbank trading and matching anonymous counterparts for large fees. Today, however, much of this business has moved on to more efficient electronic systems. The broker squawk box lets traders listen in on ongoing interbank trading and is heard in most trading rooms, but turnover is noticeably smaller than just a few years ago.[citation needed]

 

Commercial companies

 

An important part of this market comes from the financial activities of companies seeking foreign exchange to pay for goods or services. Commercial companies often trade fairly small amounts compared to those of banks or speculators, and their trades often have little short term impact on market rates. Nevertheless, trade flows are an important factor in the long-term direction of a currency's exchange rate. Some multinational companies can have an unpredictable impact when very large positions are covered due to exposures that are not widely known by other market participants.

 

Central banks

 

National central banks play an important role in the foreign exchange markets. They try to control the money supply, inflation, and/or interest rates and often have official or unofficial target rates for their currencies. They can use their often substantial foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the market. Nevertheless, the effectiveness of central bank "stabilizing speculation" is doubtful because central banks do not go bankrupt if they make large losses, like other traders would, and there is no convincing evidence that they do make a profit trading.

 

Forex Fixing

 

Forex fixing is the daily monetary exchange rate fixed by the national bank of each country. The idea is that central banks use the fixing time and exchange rate to evaluate behavior of their currency. Fixing exchange rates reflects the real value of equilibrium in the forex market. Banks, dealers and online foreign exchange traders use fixing rates as a trend indicator.
The mere expectation or rumor of central bank intervention might be enough to stabilize a currency, but aggressive intervention might be used several times each year in countries with a dirty float currency regime. Central banks do not always achieve their objectives. The combined resources of the market can easily overwhelm any central bank.[10] Several scenarios of this nature were seen in the 1992–93 ERM collapse, and in more recent times in Southeast Asia.

 

Hedge funds as speculators

 

About 70% to 90%[citation needed] of the foreign exchange transactions are speculative. In other words, the person or institution that bought or sold the currency has no plan to actually take delivery of the currency in the end; rather, they were solely speculating on the movement of that particular currency. Hedge funds have gained a reputation for aggressive currency speculation since 1996. They control billions of dollars of equity and may borrow billions more, and thus may overwhelm intervention by central banks to support almost any currency, if the economic fundamentals are in the hedge funds' favor.

 

Investment management firms

 

Investment management firms (who typically manage large accounts on behalf of customers such as pension funds and endowments) use the foreign exchange market to facilitate transactions in foreign securities. For example, an investment manager bearing an international equity portfolio needs to purchase and sell several pairs of foreign currencies to pay for foreign securities purchases.
Some investment management firms also have more speculative specialist currency overlay operations, which manage clients' currency exposures with the aim of generating profits as well as limiting risk. Whilst the number of this type of specialist firms is quite small, many have a large value of assets under management (AUM), and hence can generate large trades.

 

Retail foreign exchange traders

 

Retail traders (individuals) constitute a growing segment of this market with the advent of retail forex platforms, both in size and importance. Currently, they participate indirectly through brokers or banks. Retail brokers, while largely controlled and regulated in the USA by the CFTC and NFA have in the past been subjected to periodic foreign exchange scams.[11][12] To deal with the issue, the NFA and CFTC began (as of 2009) imposing stricter requirements, particularly in relation to the amount of Net Capitalization required of its members. As a result many of the smaller and perhaps questionable brokers are now gone or have moved to countries outside the US. A number of the forex brokers operate from the UK under FSA regulations where forex trading using margin is part of the wider over-the-counter derivatives trading industry that includes CFDs and financial spread betting.
There are two main types of retail FX brokers offering the opportunity for speculative currency trading: brokers and dealers or market makers. Brokers serve as an agent of the customer in the broader FX market, by seeking the best price in the market for a retail order and dealing on behalf of the retail customer. They charge a commission or mark-up in addition to the price obtained in the market. Dealers or market makers, by contrast, typically act as principal in the transaction versus the retail customer, and quote a price they are willing to deal at. The customer then has the choice whether or not to trade at that price.
In assessing the suitability of an FX trading service, the customer should consider the ramifications of whether the service provider is acting as principal or agent. When the service provider acts as agent, the customer is generally assured of a known cost above the best inter-dealer FX rate. When the service provider acts as principal, no commission is paid, but the price offered may not be the best available in the market—since the service provider is taking the other side of the transaction, a conflict of interest may occur.

 

Non-bank foreign exchange companies

 

Non-bank foreign exchange companies offer currency exchange and international payments to private individuals and companies. These are also known as foreign exchange brokers but are distinct in that they do not offer speculative trading but rather currency exchange with payments (i.e., there is usually a physical delivery of currency to a bank account).
It is estimated that in the UK, 14% of currency transfers/payments[13] are made via Foreign Exchange Companies.[14] These companies' selling point is usually that they will offer better exchange rates or cheaper payments than the customer's bank. These companies differ from Money Transfer/Remittance Companies in that they generally offer higher-value services.

 

Money transfer/remittance companies

 

Money transfer companies/remittance companies perform high-volume low-value transfers generally by economic migrants back to their home country. In 2007, the Aite Group estimated that there were $369 billion of remittances (an increase of 8% on the previous year). The four largest markets (India, China, Mexico and the Philippines) receive $95 billion. The largest and best known provider is Western Union with 345,000 agents globally followed by UAE Exchange[citation needed]

 

Trading characteristics

 

Most traded currencies[3] Currency distribution of reported FX market turnover[15]
Rank Currency ISO 4217 code
(Symbol)
 % daily share
(April 2010)
1
United StatesUnited States dollar
USD ($)
84.9%
2
European UnionEuro
EUR (€)
39.1%
3
JapanJapanese yen
JPY (¥)
19.0%
4
United KingdomPound sterling
GBP (£)
12.9%
5
AustraliaAustralian dollar
AUD ($)
7.6%
6
SwitzerlandSwiss franc
CHF (Fr)
6.4%
7
CanadaCanadian dollar
CAD ($)
5.3%
8
Hong KongHong Kong dollar
HKD ($)
2.4%
9
SwedenSwedish krona
SEK (kr)
2.2%
10
New ZealandNew Zealand dollar
NZD ($)
1.6%
Other Currencies 18.6%
Total[notes 1] 200%
There is no unified or centrally cleared market for the majority of FX trades, and there is very little cross-border regulation. Due to the over-the-counter (OTC) nature of currency markets, there are rather a number of interconnected marketplaces, where different currencies instruments are traded. This implies that there is not a single exchange rate but rather a number of different rates (prices), depending on what bank or market maker is trading, and where it is. In practice the rates are often very close, otherwise they could be exploited by arbitrageurs instantaneously. Due to London's dominance in the market, a particular currency's quoted price is usually the London market price. A joint venture of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Reuters, called Fxmarketspace opened in 2007 and aspired but failed to the role of a central market clearing mechanism.[citation needed]
The main trading center is London, but New York, Tokyo, Hong Kong and Singapore are all important centers as well. Banks throughout the world participate. Currency trading happens continuously throughout the day; as the Asian trading session ends, the European session begins, followed by the North American session and then back to the Asian session, excluding weekends.
Fluctuations in exchange rates are usually caused by actual monetary flows as well as by expectations of changes in monetary flows caused by changes in gross domestic product (GDP) growth, inflation (purchasing power parity theory), interest rates (interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect), budget and trade deficits or surpluses, large cross-border M&A deals and other macroeconomic conditions. Major news is released publicly, often on scheduled dates, so many people have access to the same news at the same time. However, the large banks have an important advantage; they can see their customers' order flow.
Currencies are traded against one another. Each currency pair thus constitutes an individual trading product and is traditionally noted XXXYYY or XXX/YYY, where XXX and YYY are the ISO 4217 international three-letter code of the currencies involved. The first currency (XXX) is the base currency that is quoted relative to the second currency (YYY), called the counter currency (or quote currency). For instance, the quotation EURUSD (EUR/USD) 1.5465 is the price of the euro expressed in US dollars, meaning 1 euro = 1.5465 dollars. The market convention is to quote most exchange rates against the USD with the US dollar as the base currency (e.g. USDJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF). The exceptions are the British pound (GBP), Australian dollar (AUD), the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the euro (EUR) where the USD is the counter currency (e.g. GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURUSD).
The factors affecting XXX will affect both XXXYYY and XXXZZZ. This causes positive currency correlation between XXXYYY and XXXZZZ.
On the spot market, according to the 2010 Triennial Survey, the most heavily traded bilateral currency pairs were:
  • EURUSD: 28%
  • USDJPY: 14%
  • GBPUSD (also called cable): 9%
and the US currency was involved in 84.9% of transactions, followed by the euro (39.1%), the yen (19.0%), and sterling (12.9%) (see table). Volume percentages for all individual currencies should add up to 200%, as each transaction involves two currencies.
Trading in the euro has grown considerably since the currency's creation in January 1999, and how long the foreign exchange market will remain dollar-centered is open to debate. Until recently, trading the euro versus a non-European currency ZZZ would have usually involved two trades: EURUSD and USDZZZ. The exception to this is EURJPY, which is an established traded currency pair in the interbank spot market. As the dollar's value has eroded during 2008, interest in using the euro as reference currency for prices in commodities (such as oil), as well as a larger component of foreign reserves by banks, has increased dramatically. Transactions in the currencies of commodity-producing countries, such as AUD, NZD, CAD, have also increased.

 

Determinants of FX rates

 

The following theories explain the fluctuations in FX rates in a floating exchange rate regime (In a fixed exchange rate regime, FX rates are decided by its government):
(a) International parity conditions: Relative Purchasing Power Parity, interest rate parity, Domestic Fisher effect, International Fisher effect. Though to some extent the above theories provide logical explanation for the fluctuations in exchange rates, yet these theories falter as they are based on challengeable assumptions [e.g., free flow of goods, services and capital] which seldom hold true in the real world.
(b) Balance of payments model (see exchange rate): This model, however, focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. It failed to provide any explanation for continuous appreciation of dollar during 1980s and most part of 1990s in face of soaring US current account deficit.
(c) Asset market model (see exchange rate): views currencies as an important asset class for constructing investment portfolios. Assets prices are influenced mostly by people’s willingness to hold the existing quantities of assets, which in turn depends on their expectations on the future worth of these assets. The asset market model of exchange rate determination states that “the exchange rate between two currencies represents the price that just balances the relative supplies of, and demand for, assets denominated in those currencies.”
None of the models developed so far succeed to explain FX rates levels and volatility in the longer time frames. For shorter time frames (less than a few days) algorithm can be devised to predict prices. Large and small institutions and professional individual traders have made consistent profits from it. It is understood from above models that many macroeconomic factors affect the exchange rates and in the end currency prices are a result of dual forces of demand and supply. The world's currency markets can be viewed as a huge melting pot: in a large and ever-changing mix of current events, supply and demand factors are constantly shifting, and the price of one currency in relation to another shifts accordingly. No other market encompasses (and distills) as much of what is going on in the world at any given time as foreign exchange.
Supply and demand for any given currency, and thus its value, are not influenced by any single element, but rather by several. These elements generally fall into three categories: economic factors, political conditions and market psychology.

 

Economic factors

 

These include: (a)economic policy, disseminated by government agencies and central banks, (b)economic conditions, generally revealed through economic reports, and other economic indicators.
  • Economic policy comprises government fiscal policy (budget/spending practices) and monetary policy (the means by which a government's central bank influences the supply and "cost" of money, which is reflected by the level of interest rates).
  • Government budget deficits or surpluses: The market usually reacts negatively to widening government budget deficits, and positively to narrowing budget deficits. The impact is reflected in the value of a country's currency.
  • Balance of trade levels and trends: The trade flow between countries illustrates the demand for goods and services, which in turn indicates demand for a country's currency to conduct trade. Surpluses and deficits in trade of goods and services reflect the competitiveness of a nation's economy. For example, trade deficits may have a negative impact on a nation's currency.
  • Inflation levels and trends: Typically a currency will lose value if there is a high level of inflation in the country or if inflation levels are perceived to be rising. This is because inflation erodes purchasing power, thus demand, for that particular currency. However, a currency may sometimes strengthen when inflation rises because of expectations that the central bank will raise short-term interest rates to combat rising inflation.
  • Economic growth and health: Reports such as GDP, employment levels, retail sales, capacity utilization and others, detail the levels of a country's economic growth and health. Generally, the more healthy and robust a country's economy, the better its currency will perform, and the more demand for it there will be.
  • Productivity of an economy: Increasing productivity in an economy should positively influence the value of its currency. Its effects are more prominent if the increase is in the traded sector [1].

 

Political conditions

 

Internal, regional, and international political conditions and events can have a profound effect on currency markets.
All exchange rates are susceptible to political instability and anticipations about the new ruling party. Political upheaval and instability can have a negative impact on a nation's economy. For example, destabilization of coalition governments in Pakistan and Thailand can negatively affect the value of their currencies. Similarly, in a country experiencing financial difficulties, the rise of a political faction that is perceived to be fiscally responsible can have the opposite effect. Also, events in one country in a region may spur positive/negative interest in a neighboring country and, in the process, affect its currency.

 

Market psychology

 

Market psychology and trader perceptions influence the foreign exchange market in a variety of ways:
  • Flights to quality: Unsettling international events can lead to a "flight to quality," a type of capital flight whereby investors move their assets to a perceived "safe haven." There will be a greater demand, thus a higher price, for currencies perceived as stronger over their relatively weaker counterparts. The U.S. dollar, Swiss franc and gold have been traditional safe havens during times of political or economic uncertainty.[16]
  • Long-term trends: Currency markets often move in visible long-term trends. Although currencies do not have an annual growing season like physical commodities, business cycles do make themselves felt. Cycle analysis looks at longer-term price trends that may rise from economic or political trends.[17]
  • "Buy the rumor, sell the fact": This market truism can apply to many currency situations. It is the tendency for the price of a currency to reflect the impact of a particular action before it occurs and, when the anticipated event comes to pass, react in exactly the opposite direction. This may also be referred to as a market being "oversold" or "overbought".[18] To buy the rumor or sell the fact can also be an example of the cognitive bias known as anchoring, when investors focus too much on the relevance of outside events to currency prices.
  • Economic numbers: While economic numbers can certainly reflect economic policy, some reports and numbers take on a talisman-like effect: the number itself becomes important to market psychology and may have an immediate impact on short-term market moves. "What to watch" can change over time. In recent years, for example, money supply, employment, trade balance figures and inflation numbers have all taken turns in the spotlight.
  • Technical trading considerations: As in other markets, the accumulated price movements in a currency pair such as EUR/USD can form apparent patterns that traders may attempt to use. Many traders study price charts in order to identify such patterns.[19]

 

Financial instruments

 

Spot

A spot transaction is a two-day delivery transaction (except in the case of trades between the US Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Turkish Lira, EURO and Russian Ruble, which settle the next business day), as opposed to the futures contracts, which are usually three months. This trade represents a “direct exchange” between two currencies, has the shortest time frame, involves cash rather than a contract; and interest is not included in the agreed-upon transaction.

Forward

One way to deal with the foreign exchange risk is to engage in a forward transaction. In this transaction, money does not actually change hands until some agreed upon future date. A buyer and seller agree on an exchange rate for any date in the future, and the transaction occurs on that date, regardless of what the market rates are then. The duration of the trade can be one day, a few days, months or years. Usually the date is decided by both parties. Then the forward contract is negotiated and agreed upon by both parties.

Swap

The most common type of forward transaction is the FX swap. In an FX swap, two parties exchange currencies for a certain length of time and agree to reverse the transaction at a later date. These are not standardized contracts and are not traded through an exchange.

Future

Futures are standardized and are usually traded on an exchange created for this purpose. The average contract length is roughly 3 months. Futures contracts are usually inclusive of any interest amounts.

Option

A foreign exchange option (commonly shortened to just FX option) is a derivative where the owner has the right but not the obligation to exchange money denominated in one currency into another currency at a pre-agreed exchange rate on a specified date. The FX options market is the deepest, largest and most liquid market for options of any kind in the world.

 

Speculation

 

Controversy about currency speculators and their effect on currency devaluations and national economies recurs regularly. Nevertheless, economists including Milton Friedman have argued that speculators ultimately are a stabilizing influence on the market and perform the important function of providing a market for hedgers and transferring risk from those people who don't wish to bear it, to those who do.[20] Other economists such as Joseph Stiglitz consider this argument to be based more on politics and a free market philosophy than on economics.[21]
Large hedge funds and other well capitalized "position traders" are the main professional speculators. According to some economists, individual traders could act as "noise traders" and have a more destabilizing role than larger and better informed actors.[22]
Currency speculation is considered a highly suspect activity in many countries.[where?] While investment in traditional financial instruments like bonds or stocks often is considered to contribute positively to economic growth by providing capital, currency speculation does not; according to this view, it is simply gambling that often interferes with economic policy. For example, in 1992, currency speculation forced the Central Bank of Sweden to raise interest rates for a few days to 500% per annum, and later to devalue the krona.[23] Former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad is one well known proponent of this view. He blamed the devaluation of the Malaysian ringgit in 1997 on George Soros and other speculators.
Gregory J. Millman reports on an opposing view, comparing speculators to "vigilantes" who simply help "enforce" international agreements and anticipate the effects of basic economic "laws" in order to profit.[24]
In this view, countries may develop unsustainable financial bubbles or otherwise mishandle their national economies, and foreign exchange speculators made the inevitable collapse happen sooner. A relatively quick collapse might even be preferable to continued economic mishandling, followed by an eventual, larger, collapse. Mahathir Mohamad and other critics of speculation are viewed as trying to deflect the blame from themselves for having caused the unsustainable economic conditions.

 

Risk aversion in forex

 


Fig.1 Chart showing MSCI World Index of Equities fell while the US Dollar Index rose.
Risk aversion in the forex is a kind of trading behavior exhibited by the foreign exchange market when a potentially adverse event happens which may affect market conditions. This behavior is caused when risk averse traders liquidate their positions in risky assets and shift the funds to less risky assets due to uncertainty.[25]
In the context of the forex market, traders liquidate their positions in various currencies to take up positions in safe-haven currencies, such as the US Dollar.[26] Sometimes, the choice of a safe haven currency is more of a choice based on prevailing sentiments rather than one of economic statistics. An example would be the Financial Crisis of 2008. The value of equities across world fell while the US Dollar strengthened (see Fig.1). This happened despite the strong focus of the crisis in the USA.[27]


source : http://en.wikipedia.org
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