2011

Thursday, April 28, 2011

USD/JPY Still Softer

We saw the USD hit hard this afternoon during and following Ben Bernanke’s testimony. In some instances, like the EUR/USD, we are starting to see some profit taking and mild retracements of earlier upward moves. However, the in the case of the USD/JPY we are seeing no recovery yet as the USD continues to sell against the JPY. After breaking through...

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Commerzbank: German exporters expect euro to fall

According to Commerzbank’s monthly survey of German exporters, the majority of respondents still think that the single currency will soon drop. The sentiment of German companies about euro has worsened this month in comparison with March: 66% of participants now expect EUR/USD to fall during a year, while last month this figure accounted for 46%. As...

UK economy went out of the dip

According to the data released today, UK GDP added 0.5% in the first 3 months of 2010 after losing the same amount in fourth quarter of 2010. Analysts at Capital Economics claim that British economy has only reversed the dip without going forwards. As a result, the opposition’s criticism of the government's austerity measures is likely to strengthen,...

Analysts increase forecasts for Aussie

Australian dollar reached today the record maximum at 1.0852 as the CPI data showed that inflation rate increased by 1.6% in the final 3 months of 2010 from the previous quarter, making the biggest advance since 2006. As a result, the expectations of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s rate hike have strengthened. In addition, Aussie benefited from the...

Barclays Capital: Canadian dollar forecast

Canadian dollar added 11.8% versus the greenback since the end of June reaching $0.9453 on April 21, the maximal level since November 2007. Analysts at Barclays Capital think that loonie may climb even higher. In their view, Canada’s currency will show the best results among the commodity currencies such as Australian and New Zealand’s dollars as those...

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Bullish AUD/NZD met with resistance at 1.3425

Upon the release of Australian CPI data this Wednesday, the AUD/NZD was taken to session lows at around the 1.3320 level (50% retracement of the rally between 1.3388/1.3446) before spiking higher, recording a 4 day high in the 1.3425 zone. The pair is now consolidating below this level and is currently trading in the 1.3410/20 area, 30 pips above the...

Juergen Stark: it’s vital to avoid debt restructuring in euro zone

European Central Bank Chief Economist Juergen Stark claimed in the interview to German TV station ZDF that debt restructuring euro area member state may lead to more severe consequences than those of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy that market 2008 crisis. In his view, such move would result in new banking crisis failing to solve the budget and structural...

Greece’s deficit rose above the forecast

According to the EU data released today, the actual Greece’s 2010 budget deficit exceeded the forecast level. Greek shortfall rose to 10.5% of GDP, while the European Commission was looking forward only to 9.6% figure. The nation’s debt surged to 142.8% of GDP that’s above 140.2% estimate. Despite the fact that a year ago the EU and the IMF provided...

Commerzbank: ECB rates forecast

Strategists at Commerzbank think that the ECB will lift up the rates 2 times more – in September and in December. In addition, by the middle of the year the European policymakers may also change the allotment modes that may also be regarded as a tightening move. The specialists think that the peripheral nations won’t be affected much by the rate increase,...

Monday, April 25, 2011

Hans Tietmeyer about the euro area and the ECB policy

Former Bundesbank President Hans Tietmeyer says that European Commission should have determined the criteria of joining the euro area more strictly. In his view, the currency union now faces the consequences of its development during the last 10 years. Tietmeyer claims that Greece has a chance to get out of the crisis without restructuring. In his...

Financial Times: too early to restructure Greece's debt

Analysts at Financial Times doubt that the euro zone will be able to get out of the crisis without suffering much, as they have thought before. The economists changed their opinion as the tensions within the monetary union have significantly strengthened during the past week. Let’s name the 2 main events here. Firstly, the elections in Finland showed...

Citigroup, UBS about the potential intervention in Japan

The pair USD/JPY is trading at the lower border of the large “triangle”. Last week US dollar eased down to 81.60. The greenback is still very weak and investors once again began speculating about the potential Japan’s currency intervention. Analysts at Citigroup and UBS think that the level watched by the country’s authorities is situated at 80 yen....

Foreign exchange market

The foreign exchange market (forex, FX, or currency market) is a global, worldwide decentralized over-the-counter financial market for trading currencies. Financial centers around the world function as anchors of trading between a wide range of different types of buyers and sellers around the clock, with the exception of weekends. The foreign exchange...